Portland Trail Blazers rookie Scoot Henderson enters the 2023-24 season with absolute confidence in his ability.

Scoot Henderson rather surprisingly fell to the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 3 in the 2023 NBA Draft. In most years, Henderson would've been the top pick — an explosive three-level scorer and lead playmaker with the strength of a professional body builder. He had the unfortunate luck of going up against Victor Wembanyama and one of the most productive college freshmen in recent history, Brandon Miller.

The Blazers were happy to take Henderson, even if it all but guaranteed Damian Lillard's eventual trade request. That's how strongly the front office believes in Henderson's future. He will either lead the next era of Portland basketball starting next season, or he will spend a considerable amount of time as Lillard's running mate. It ultimately depends on how committed Joe Cronin and the Portland front office is to testing Lillard's resolve.

Henderson's not really focused on the Dame drama, of course. He's prepared to put his best foot forward either way, and he's supremely confident in his ability to perform at a high level from day one.

Portland Trail Blazers' Scoot Henderson guarantees Rookie of the Year victory

I will win Rookie of the Year, said Henderson. Short, sweet, and decisive. Henderson has always been a player who exudes supreme self-confidence. That can be a gift and a curse, but it's the attitude you want in your franchise cornerstone. Henderson tends to back up his talk on the court, never backing down from a challenge or getting complacent. He has a real drive to impose his will, not unlike the NBA star he is most frequently compared to: Russell Westbrook.

I'm not saying I want to have a great rookie season. I'm going to have a great rookie season. Henderson isn't interested in hedging his bets. He wants to manifest the future he sees for himself, and that involves immediate high-level contributions in the NBA. He's more than capable of delivering.

Of course, a Rookie of the Year win is far from guaranteed. Henderson will face stiff competition in the form of No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, not to mention other high-profile talents like Chet Holmgren, Amen Thompson, and Brandon Miller. Henderson's path gets extremely murky if Lillard sticks around, as Henderson's playing time will be suppressed by the future Hall of Famer, as well as young guards Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe.

Henderson is a tremendous all-around offensive talent who should have no trouble putting up numbers. Rookie of the Year voters tend to favor volume of production over impact on winning. Henderson has the ability to check both boxes, but the Blazers won't win many games if Lillard is out the door. Point guard is a difficult position and it often requires a steep learning curve. Henderson will have to polish his decision-making and adjust to the pressure of NBA defense.

Even with the challenges inherent to his position, Henderson is a special player who should thrive sooner than later. While he's not the actual Rookie of the Year favorite — there's no way to overlook Wemby and Holmgren is a Ben Simmons-style fake rookie — there's a definite path to the award for Henderson, especially if his primary competitors fall short of the NBA's new 65-game minimum for awards.